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Process-Based Modeling to Assess the Effects of Recent Climatic Variation on Site Productivity and Forest Function across Western North America

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Title Process-Based Modeling to Assess the Effects of Recent Climatic Variation on Site Productivity and Forest Function across Western North America
Names Waring, Richard H. (creator)
Coops, Nicholas C. (creator)
Mathys, Amanda (creator)
Hilker, Thomas (creator)
Latta, Greg (creator)
Date Issued 2014-03-24 (iso8601)
Note This is the publisher’s final pdf. The published article is copyrighted by the author(s) and published by MDPI. The published article can be found at: http://www.mdpi.com/journal/forests.
Abstract A process-based forest growth model, 3-PG (Physiological Principles Predicting
Growth), parameterized with values of soil properties constrained by satellite-derived
estimates of maximum leaf area index (LAI[subscript max]), was run for Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga
menziesii) to contrast the extent to which site growth potential might vary across western
North America between a cool, wet period (1950–1975) and a more recent, generally
warmer and drier one (2000–2009). LAI[subscript max] represents a surrogate for overall site growth
potential, as demonstrated from a strong correlation between the two variables, with the
latter based on the culmination of mean annual increment estimates made at 3356
ground-based U.S. Forest Service survey plots across the states of Oregon and Washington.
Results indicate that since 2000, predicted LAI[subscript max] has decreased more than 20% in portions
of the Southwest USA and for much of the forested area in western Alberta. Similar
percentage increases in LAI[subscript max] were predicted for parts of British Columbia, Idaho and
Montana. The modeling analysis included an assessment of changes in seasonal constraints
on gross primary production (GPP). A general reduction in limitations caused by spring
frost occurred across the entire study area. This has led to a longer growing season, along
with notable increases in summer evaporative demand and soil drought for much of the
study area away from the maritime influence of the Pacific Ocean.
Genre Article
Access Condition http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/us/
Topic Climate change
Identifier Waring RH, Coops NC, Mathys A, Hilker T, Latta G. (2014). Process-Based Modeling to Assess the Effects of Recent Climatic Variation on Site Productivity and Forest Function across Western North America. Forests, 5(3):518-534. doi:10.3390/f5030518

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