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Long-term population size of the North Atlantic humpback whale within the context of worldwide population structure

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Title Long-term population size of the North Atlantic humpback whale within the context of worldwide population structure
Names Ruegg, Kristen (creator)
Rosenbaum, Howard C. (creator)
Anderson, Eric C. (creator)
Engel, Marcia (creator)
Rothschild, Anna (creator)
Baker, C. Scott (creator)
Palumbi, Stephen R. (creator)
Date Issued 2012-12-13 (iso8601)
Note To the best of our knowledge, one or more authors of this paper were federal employees when contributing to this work.
This is the publisher’s final pdf. The published article is copyrighted by Springer and can be found at: http://www.springer.com/?SGWID=0-102-0-0-0.
Abstract Once hunted to the brink of extinction, humpback whales (Megaptera novaeangliae) in the North Atlantic have recently been increasing in numbers. However, uncertain information on past abundance makes it difficult to assess the extent of the recovery in this species. While estimates of pre-exploitation abundance based upon catch data suggest the population might be approaching pre-whaling numbers, estimates based on mtDNA genetic diversity suggest they are still only a fraction of their past abundance levels. The difference between the two estimates could be accounted for by inaccuracies in the catch record, by uncertainties surrounding the genetic estimate, or by differences in the timescale to which the two estimates apply. Here we report an estimate of long-term population size based on nuclear gene diversity. We increase the reliability of our genetic estimate by increasing the number of loci, incorporating uncertainty in each parameter and increasing sampling across the geographic range. We report an estimate of long-term population size in the North Atlantic humpback of similar to 112,000 individuals (95 % CI 45,000-235,000). This value is 2-3 fold higher than estimates based upon catch data. This persistent difference between estimates parallels difficulties encountered by population models in explaining the historical crash of North Atlantic humpback whales. The remaining discrepancy between genetic and catch-record values, and the failure of population models, highlights a need for continued evaluation of whale population growth and shifts over time, and continued caution about changing the conservation status of this population.
Genre Article
Topic Effective population size
Identifier Kristen Ruegg, Howard C Rosenbaum, Eric C Anderson, Marcia Engel, Anna Rothschild, C Scott Baker, & Stephen R Palumbi. (2013). Long-term population size of the north atlantic humpback whale within the context of worldwide population structure. Conservation Genetics, 14(1), 103. doi: 10.1007/s10592-012-0432-0

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