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Why aren't pigeon guillemots in Prince William Sound, Alaska recovering from the Exxon Valdez oil spill?

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Title Why aren't pigeon guillemots in Prince William Sound, Alaska recovering from the Exxon Valdez oil spill?
Names Bixler, Kirsten S. (creator)
Roby, Daniel D. (advisor)
Date Issued 2010-12-02 (iso8601)
Note Graduation date: 2011
Abstract The Pigeon Guillemot (Cepphus columba) is now the only species of marine bird in
Prince William Sound (PWS), Alaska that is listed as "not recovering" on the Exxon
Valdez Oil Spill (EVOS) Trustee Council's Injured Resources List and has shown no
sign of population recovery. During the 20 years since EVOS, the guillemot
population in PWS has gradually declined by nearly 50% following the initial
mortality event caused by direct contact with spilled oil. This decline has continued
even though there is no longer evidence that guillemots are negatively affected by
residual oil from EVOS. My objectives in this study were to (1) identify the primary
factor now limiting Pigeon Guillemot population recovery at the Naked Island group,
the most important historical breeding area for guillemots in PWS, and (2) determine
whether guillemot population trends across PWS are consistent with my understanding
of the primary limiting factor. I investigated two competing hypotheses for the lack of
guillemot recovery at the Naked Island group: availability of high quality prey (i.e.,
schooling forage fish) and nest predation. The prevalence of schooling forage fish in
the diet of Pigeon Guillemots at the Naked Island group has not recovered to pre-
EVOS levels. However, data from both aerial surveys and beach seines provided
evidence of an increase in abundance of schooling forage fish near the Naked Island
group since the late 1990s. Yet between 1990 and 2008, there was a precipitous 12%
per annum decline in the guillemot population at the Naked Island group, where mink
are present, while at the nearby mink-free Smith Island group guillemot numbers were
stable. The mortality rate of guillemot eggs and chicks at the Naked Island group was
high during the late 1990s, largely attributable to predation by mink. The weight of
evidence indicates that predation by mink is now the primary factor limiting the
reproductive success and population recovery of Pigeon Guillemots at the Naked
Island group.
Differences in guillemot population trends between the Naked Island group and the
remainder of PWS are also consistent with the mink predation hypothesis. The median
decline in density of Pigeon Guillemots along transects at the Naked Island group was
much greater (> 7 times) than the decline along transects throughout the remainder of
PWS. The proportion of all guillemots in isolated pairs (as opposed to multi-pair
groups) increased substantially only at the Naked Island group. This is consistent with
the hypothesis that mink predation negatively affected guillemot colonies more than
isolated nesting pairs; perhaps because guillemot nests in colonies were more apparent
or more accessible to mink. At other high-density guillemot nesting areas in PWS,
average group size of guillemots declined from 12 to 8 individuals suggesting that
other factors may play a role in constraining of guillemots on a region-wide scale,
perhaps availability of schooling forage fishes. Nevertheless, I conclude that the key to
restoring the injured guillemot population at the Naked Island group is to eliminate
mink predation pressure on guillemot eggs, nestlings, and attending adults.
Genre Thesis/Dissertation
Topic Pigeon Guillemots
Identifier http://hdl.handle.net/1957/19472

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