Record Details
Climate Sensitivity Estimated From Temperature Reconstructions of the Last Glacial Maximum
ScholarsArchive at Oregon State University
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Title | Climate Sensitivity Estimated From Temperature Reconstructions of the Last Glacial Maximum |
| Names |
Schmittner, Andreas
(creator) Urban, Nathan M. (creator) Shakun, Jeremy D. (creator) Mahowald, Natalie M. (creator) Clark, Peter U. (creator) Bartlein, Patrick J. (creator) Mix, Alan C. (creator) Rosell-Mele, Antoni (creator) |
| Date Issued | 2011-12-09 (iso8601) |
| Note | This is the author's peer-reviewed final manuscript, as accepted by the publisher. The published article is copyrighted by the American Association for the Advancement of Science and can be found at: http://www.sciencemag.org/. |
| Abstract | Assessing impacts of future anthropogenic carbon emissions is currently impeded by uncertainties in our knowledge of equilibrium climate sensitivity to atmospheric carbon dioxide doubling. Previous studies suggest 3 K as best estimate, 2–4.5 K as the 66% probability range, and non-zero probabilities for much higher values, the latter implying a small but significant chance of high-impact climate changes that would be difficult to avoid. Here, combining extensive sea and land surface temperature reconstructions from the Last Glacial Maximum with climate model simulations we estimate a lower median (2.3 K) and reduced uncertainty (1.7–2.6 K 66% probability). Assuming paleoclimatic constraints apply to the future as predicted by our model, these results imply lower probability of imminent extreme climatic change than previously thought. |
| Genre | Article |
| Identifier | Schmittner, A., Urban, N. M., Shakun, J. D., Mahowald, N. M., Clark, P. U., Bartlein, P. J., . . . Rosell-Melé, A. (2011). Climate sensitivity estimated from temperature reconstructions of the last glacial maximum. Science (New York, N.Y.), 334(6061), 1385-1388. doi: 10.1126/science.1203513 |
