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Sea surface topography fields of the tropical Pacific from data assimilation

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Title Sea surface topography fields of the tropical Pacific from data assimilation
Names Miller, Robert N. (creator)
Busalacchi, Antonio J. (creator)
Hackert, Eric C. (creator)
Date Issued 1995-07-15 (iso8601)
Note Copyrighted by American Geophysical Union.
Abstract Time series of maps of monthly tropical Pacific dynamic topography
anomalies from 1979 through 1985 were constructed by means of assimilation of tide
gauge and expendable bathythermograph (XBT) data into a linear model driven by
observed winds. Estimates of error statistics were calculated and compared to actual
differences between hindcasts and observations. Four experiments were performed
as follows: one with no assimilation, one with assimiation of sea level anomaly data
from eight selected island tide gauge stations, one with assimilation of dynamic
height anomalies derived from XBT data, and one with both XBT and tide gauge
data assimilated. Data from seven additional tide gauge stations were withheld from
the assimilation process and used for verification in all four experiments. Statistical
objective maps based on data alone were also constructed for comparison purposes.
The dynamic response of the model without assimilation was, in general, weaker
than the observed response. Assimilation resulted in enhanced signal amplitude in
all three assimilation experiments. RMS amplitudes of statistical objective maps
were only strong near observing points. In large data-void regions these maps show
amplitudes even weaker than the wind-driven model without assimilation. With
few exceptions the error estimates generated by the Kalman filter appeared quite
reasonable. Since the error processes cannot be assumed to be white or stationary,
we could find no straightforward way to test the formal statistical hypothesis that
the time series of differences between the filter output and the actual observations
were drawn from a population with statistics given by the Kalman filter estimates.
The autocovariance of the innovation sequence, i.e., the sequence of differences
between forecasts before assimilation and observations, has long been used as an
indicator of how close a filter is to optimality. We found that the best filter we
could devise was still short of the goal of producing a white innovation sequence.
In this and earlier studies, little sensitivity has been found to the parameters under
our direct control. Extensive changes in the assumed error statistics make only
marginal differences. The same is true for long time and space scale behavior of
different models with richer physics and finer resolution. Better data assimilation
results will probably require relaxation of the assumptions of stationarity and serial
independence of the errors. Formulation of such detailed noise models will require
longer time series, with the attendant problems of matching very different data sets.
Genre Article
Identifier Miller, R., A. Busalacchi, and E. Hackert (1995), Sea surface topography fields of the tropical Pacific from data assimilation, J. Geophys. Res., 100(C7), 13389-13425, doi:10.1029/95JC00721.

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